Am I an alarmist? Yes, the whole world should be alarmed. Every year the possibility of a global cataclysm is increasing. Below I will list shortly the trigger points.
In a decade climate change will cause catastrophic events such as floods, famine, drought, fires and a huge increase in migration around the world.
“The world’s leading climate scientists have warned there are only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people. “ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report
Pandemic due to mobility of people around the planet
Dangers of a catastrophic pandemic are increasing with population growth.
“The last 30 years have seen a steady increase in the frequency and diversity of disease outbreaks. With an unprecedented mobility of people, products, and food, the myriad of disease-causing microorganisms are also increasingly mobile. No nation is immune to this growing global threat that can be posed by an isolated outbreak of an infectious disease in a seemingly remote part of the world. “ https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/pandemics
Our dependence on technology
The more our civilization depends on technology the more vulnerable it becomes. Cyber attacks on our crucial infrastructure like power grids that will effectively shut down the country.
“Imagine one of our large cities with no power, no water, no phones, no email, no texting, no food, no refrigeration, limited currency exchange, no functioning hospitals, no sanitation services, no public transportation and no effective law enforcement. Now imagine dozens of our large cities, perhaps all the large cities in, say, the eastern half of the country, in that predicament. “ https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/06/21/the_intersecting_threats_in_our_cyber-connected_world_137312.html
Attack on satellites – weather forecasts, communications, GPS.
GPS networks if compromised will effectively disable our defense and offense capabilities.
Consider the following scenario. China and Russia might deploy an outsized fleet of, say, 50 to 100 specialized spacecraft in peacetime and station some near U.S. satellites. There is currently no agreement to stop these spacecraft from sidling up to U.S. satellites and lurking at an arbitrarily close distance. Once these spacecraft are in position, they could quickly attack U.S. satellites from such close proximity that the U.S. would have no time to mount a defense. https://spacenews.com/growing-u-s-satellite-vulnerability-the-silent-apocalypse-next/
End of the new world order
After the WWII the new world order was created under the leadership of the United states. United Nations, NATO, World Trade Organization and many others that are able to solve grievances and conflicts between countries peacefully.
“If we lose the American-guaranteed collection of laws, democratic values, economic and defense treaties that have produced seven unprecedented decades of peace and prosperity, you’ll wonder why you ever worried about anything else.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookmanville/2018/10/14/why-a-crumbling-world-order-urgently-needs-u-s-leadership/#601804452e61
Danger of major conflict due to erosion of global trade and rise in nationalism.
One study finds that multilateral trade openness in fact lowers the probability of dyadic conflict with the bilateral trade partner, and by a larger magnitude than bilateral trade does alone. An increase in global trade openness by 10% from the world mean value decreases the probability of the dyad’s military conflict by about 2.6% from its predicted mean.https://voxeu.org/article/globalisation-promotes-peace
The problem is exacerbated by Trump’s divisive international and domestic policies.
Diminishing alliances’ ability to effectively contain adversaries such as China and Russia who are cooperating to weaken our Western alliance. Hampering world ability to react in a pandemic situation.
These are dangerous times and the only way for humanity to deal with the crisis is to act together, to have a common plan of action. No country will be able to deal with this scope of cataclysms by itself. And that is why the Trump administration isolationists policies are so dangerous for America and the world.
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